TOP 5 Market Highlights: Key Events Shaping Global Markets & Economic Trends | Tradexprop
Market Highlights This Week: Trade Tensions, Inflation, and Geopolitical Risks
10/2/2025 – Trade Tensions, Inflation, and Geopolitical Risks Shake Global Economy
Markets face pressure from rising uncertainty due to escalating trade tensions. The US dollar strengthened, weighing on the Australian, Canadian, and South African currencies, while stocks showed mixed performance. Gold hit a record high, surging past $2,900, and oil rose nearly 2%. amid economic and geopolitical risks.
Inflation concerns persist. US consumers worry about tariffs, and UK pay growth is slowing.
North Korea escalated tensions over a US submarine in South Korea. Israel increased defense readiness amid Hamas disputes. Russia remains firm on Ukraine talks, criticizing US involvement.
11/2/2025 – Markets Waver Amid Tariffs, Inflation, and Geopolitical Uncertainty
Global stocks were mixed as trade tariffs and inflation concerns weighed on sentiment. Wall Street closed unevenly, European stocks hit record highs despite steel and mining declines, and Asian currencies weakened as gold surged.
The Fed maintained a cautious stance as U.S. inflation stayed above 2%. Emerging markets, including Brazil and Mexico, faced tariff uncertainty, while Hungary’s inflation hit 5.5%.
The U.S. reimposed steel and aluminum tariffs, drawing global criticism. Geopolitical tensions rose with Hamas rejecting U.S. ultimatums and continued Russia-Ukraine conflicts.
Gold hit record highs, oil climbed on supply fears, and the U.S. dollar weakened. Meanwhile, Tesla’s Shanghai battery plant began production, and AI policy dominated the Paris summit.
12/2/2025 – US Inflation Rises, Dollar Strengthens, and Geopolitical Talks Gain Momentum
The US dollar strengthened as US inflation reached 3.0% YoY and US January CPI rose 0.5%, exceeding forecasts. Real earnings fell 0.3%, pressuring consumers. Treasury yields spiked, while European stocks hit record highs, and Asian currencies saw mixed movements amid geopolitical tensions.
Trump and Putin agreed to peace talks on Ukraine, lifting its bonds. The UK pledged £150M in military aid. Egypt and Jordan pushed for Israeli-Palestinian peace efforts.
Gold held steady on safe-haven demand, while oil fell 2% on inventory builds and Fed rhetoric. The US dollar strengthened against the yen and euro.
NASA plans an audit of Doge initiative spending. Jordan’s King raised concerns over Gaza in talks with France. Zambia hiked its key rate to 14.5% to curb inflation.
13/2/2025 – Markets React to Tariff Tensions, Inflation Data, and Geopolitical Shifts
Markets reacted to U.S. tariff tensions, with the euro rising on Ukraine peace optimism. Treasury yields fell on weak producer prices, while oil steadied after initial declines.
U.S. producer prices rose 0.3% MoM, with annual inflation at 3.6%. Jobless claims fell to 213,000, signaling labor market strength.
Modi urged Russia-Ukraine negotiations, while Zelenskiy pushed for European involvement. Trump proposed global defense spending cuts.
Gold rose on trade war fears, the euro strengthened on peace hopes, and oil steadied after tariff concerns.
Musk’s companies faced layoff scrutiny and U.S. layoffs sparked policy concerns.
14/2/2025 – Markets React to Tariff Easing, Weak Retail Sales, and Geopolitical Tensions
U.S. equities edged up as tariff concerns eased, while treasury yields fell on weak retail sales. The dollar declined, gold neared a seventh weekly gain, and oil rebounded after three weeks of losses.
U.S. retail sales saw their biggest drop in two years, while the Eurozone showed slight GDP growth.
U.S.-EU tariff disputes intensified, while U.S.-India talks advanced defense ties. Russia-Ukraine tensions escalated with drone attacks, and NATO addressed Arctic security.
A weaker dollar boosted gold and emerging market currencies. Oil rebounded on optimism over delayed U.S. tariffs.
What to be on the lookout for next week?
Employment Change (U.K.)
On 18/2/2025, the UK’s Employment Change, will be released by the Office for National Statistics, which measures the number of people employed over the past three months. An increase in employment is bullish for the Pound, while a decrease is bearish.
This report is crucial as it signals economic growth and potential inflation, influencing central bank policy. Strong employment growth suggests economic resilience, potentially leading to sustained interest rates by the Bank of England. Conversely, weak data may prompt rate cuts.
Markets expect moderate employment growth, in line with the Bank of England’s balanced approach to recovery and inflation control.
Risks include unexpected employment drops due to global economic challenges, which could disrupt market expectations and lead to volatility.
CPI and Core CPI (U.K.)
On 19/2/2025, the U.K. will release both its Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Core CPI, which track inflation by measuring price changes in household goods and services. Core CPI excludes volatile components like food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco. This data is crucial for the Bank of England’s inflation target, with higher readings typically seen as bullish for the Pound and lower readings bearish.
The Bank of England’s target is 2% inflation, so any significant shift in CPI could influence monetary policy. A rise in inflation could lead to faster rate hikes or reduced bond-buying, tightening the pound supply, while lower inflation may prompt looser policies.
The upcoming Core CPI is expected to increase to 3.7 from 3.2, signaling potential changes in the Bank of England’s stance. A higher-than-expected reading could boost the pound and lead to tighter monetary policy, while a significant drop may reduce expectations for rate hikes, affecting market confidence.
Markets expect steady inflation, with the Bank of England likely maintaining current rates. However, a surprise surge or drop in CPI could trigger market volatility, impacting currency values and bond yields.
GDP (U.K.)
Next week on 13/2/2025, the UK will release its GDP report. This is a key measure of the country’s economic health. With the previous GDP at 0 (which means no growth), any shift will influence how the central bank sets policies. If the GDP grows, it might lead to higher interest rates, but if it shrinks, we could see more relaxed policies. The market is expected to react strongly either way.
Most people are expecting some growth, which would ease worries about inflation and rising interest rates. Investors will be watching closely for any surprises. The big risk is if GDP is much lower than expected, which could cause market panic and spark talk of aggressive rate cuts. Global issues like trade tensions or conflicts could also drag down growth.
FOMC Minutes (U.S.)
The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meets eight times a year to review economic conditions and set monetary policy. The FOMC Minutes, released three weeks after each meeting, offer insights into future US interest rate policies. We will see a new FOMC meeting on 20/2/2025.
A bullish tone in the minutes typically strengthens the USD, while a dovish stance may weaken it. Market reactions to the minutes can be delayed since news outlets don’t have early access to the publication.
If the minutes suggest a hawkish stance, equities and gold may fall, while the dollar could strengthen. Markets expect the FOMC Minutes to support economic expansion, potentially boosting equities but pressuring gold.
Unexpected shifts in tone could lead to volatility, with a hawkish outlook strengthening the dollar but negatively impacting equities and gold.
Retail Sales (U.K.)
Retail Sales data will be released on 21/2/2025 by the Office for National Statistics, which measures consumer spending in Great Britain. It’s a key indicator of economic health, with a higher reading seen as bullish for the Pound.
A rebound in retail sales from -0.3% to 0.3% would indicate improving consumer confidence, potentially influencing Bank of England policy. Markets expect modest growth, which could lead to discussions on interest rates.
Risks include ongoing economic uncertainty or inflation, which could dampen consumer spending and delay rate hikes, negatively impacting market confidence and currency stability.
Q&A Section:
Q&A 1: How have geopolitical tensions and US tariff announcements affected currency and commodity markets?
Recent geopolitical tensions—such as North Korea’s military escalations, disputes in the Middle East, and debates over Ukraine—combined with US tariff announcements, have increased market uncertainty. This has led to a stronger US dollar at times, pressured currencies like the Australian, Canadian, and South African, and pushed gold to record highs as investors sought safe havens. Oil prices have also been volatile, reacting to both trade concerns and shifts in geopolitical sentiment.
Q&A 2: What impact could the upcoming UK CPI and Core CPI releases have on monetary policy and the Pound?
The UK CPI and Core CPI, set for release on 19/2/2025, are key indicators of inflation, which the Bank of England targets at 2%. A higher-than-expected reading may prompt faster rate hikes or reduced bond-buying, tightening the supply of pounds and potentially strengthening the currency. Conversely, lower inflation could lead to more accommodative policies. Traders will closely watch these figures as they signal potential shifts in monetary policy and market sentiment.
