Market Highlights: U.S. Tariffs, Gold Surge & Nasdaq Bear Market
31/3/2025 – Iran Warns US and Israel, Heightening Middle East Tension
Global markets are mixed, with Latin American stocks hit by tariff concerns and the Fed cautious on rates due to inflation risks. Emerging markets like Colombia face ongoing challenges.
Geopolitical tensions persist, especially with Iran, though US-Russia ties show signs of improvement. China’s support for Ukraine peace talks highlights its diplomatic role.
Tariff fears may push bond yields and affect currencies and gold. Latin America could see added currency pressure.
The US launched a $1B investment initiative to boost growth, especially in tech and infrastructure.
A US court ruling on Venezuelan migrants underscores legal and political impacts of immigration policy.
1/4/2025 – Mixed US Economic Signals Stir Uncertainty, Gold Gains as Dollar Wavers
Markets face uncertainty as US tariffs and weak jobs data cloud Fed policy. Argentina and South Africa show resilience through energy exports and budget moves.
US inflation rises as the labor market softens. New Zealand’s housing remains steady.
Tariffs heighten trade tensions, risking global impacts. Oil supply tightens, supporting prices. Gold may gain as a safe haven, while Argentina boosts regional energy supply.
US auto tariffs may lift sales but raise costs. FDA leadership changes hint at regulatory shifts.
A court case and FDA moves reflect broader social and policy trends
A US court ruling on Venezuelan migrants underscores legal and political impacts of immigration policy.
2/4/2025 – US Dollar Surges, Gold and Silver Soar Amid Tariff Uncertainty
Markets slid after new US tariffs, hitting tech stocks and lifting the dollar. Fed warns of inflation risks and long-term supply chain impacts.
Global leaders condemned the tariffs, raising trade war fears. Gold and silver sales jumped as safe-haven demand grew.
Stocks like Wayfair and Penske tumbled. Leadership changes and stronger forex reserves hint at efforts to stabilize markets.
3/4/2025 – Trump Tariffs Stir Fears of Global Economic Slowdown
Trump’s tariffs raise global slowdown fears, prompting Canada, South Korea, and Brazil to seek trade solutions.
US-Russia ties show progress but need more talks, with discussions touching on rare metals and Arctic plans.
The Canadian dollar hit a 4-month high; oil gains attention amid US energy moves, including a $1.4B reserve deal.
AppLovin may acquire TikTok outside China; tariffs could push iPhone prices to $2,300, showing regulatory impact on markets.
FDA paused bird flu testing due to staff cuts; DOE prepares for new duties, reflecting federal resource shifts.
4/4/2025 – Nasdaq Enters Bear Market Amid Tariff Tensions
U.S. stocks slump as Nasdaq enters bear market, driven by tariff tensions and growth concerns. Global markets remain cautious.
Fitch affirms Italy’s ‘BBB’ rating; Slovenia gains fiscal stability, supporting Eurozone bond confidence.
Tensions rise as North Korea and Ukraine stir regional instability, keeping East Asia and Eastern Europe under watch.
The U.S. dollar rebounds as a safe haven; Australian dollar hits five-year low amid China tariffs.
Tether eyes a U.S. stablecoin, signaling rising competition in digital payments and possible regulatory focus.
Fitch warns of financial risks in Africa due to conflict in Eastern DRC, threatening Rwanda’s funding access.
What to be on the lookout for next week?
7/4/2025 – Retail Sales (YoY) (EU)
Eurostat’s monthly Retail Sales data measures retail volume in the Eurozone, influencing consumer spending trends. A high reading is bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is bearish.
Retail sales are a key indicator of economic health, affecting inflation, growth, and ECB policy.
A stronger reading than the forecast (1.8%) could signal recovery and lead to tighter ECB policy. A weaker reading could raise concerns about slowing growth.
Markets expect a rise in retail sales, reflecting consumer resilience amid EMU recovery, with some caution.
Risks include economic slowdowns, weaker sales, or external shocks affecting consumer confidence and ECB policy.
10/4/2025 – FOMC Minutes (US)
The FOMC meets 8 times a year to review economic conditions and set US monetary policy. The FOMC Minutes, released three weeks later, provide insights into future rate decisions.
The FOMC Minutes reveal policy outlook and vote splits. A hawkish tone boosts the USD, while a dovish stance is USD-negative. Market reactions may be delayed.
FOMC Minutes shape expectations on interest rates and economic outlook, influencing forex, equities, and gold.
Markets expect a balanced approach from the Fed, with potential signals for rate cuts if the stance softens.
Risks include unexpected Fed shifts signaling tighter policy or external shocks causing market volatility.
10/4/2025 – CPI MoM & YoY (US)
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures inflation by tracking price changes of a basket of goods. Released monthly by the US Department of Labor Statistics, it compares YoY and MoM price changes. A high CPI is bullish for the USD, while a low CPI is bearish.
The Fed aims for 2% YoY inflation, but rising CPI due to supply chain issues has led to aggressive Fed actions to manage inflation.
CPI affects Fed policy. A high CPI may prompt higher rates, strengthening the USD but weighing on stocks and gold. A low CPI could ease rate pressure, benefiting equities and gold.
Markets expect slight inflation easing (2.6%), which may support equities and gold if the Fed signals less aggressive policy.
A higher CPI could lead to more rate hikes and market volatility. A significant drop may signal economic weakness, creating uncertainty.
10/4/2025 – Core CPI MoM & YoY (US)
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) tracks inflation, with CPI Ex Food & Energy excluding volatile prices. A high CPI is bullish for the USD, while a low reading is bearish.
The Fed targets 2% YoY inflation, but ongoing supply chain issues have led to high CPI, prompting aggressive Fed actions.
A higher CPI may signal persistent inflation, leading to more rate hikes. A lower CPI could ease rate pressure, benefiting stocks but negatively affecting gold.
Markets expect a slight drop in CPI Ex Food & Energy (from 3.1% to 3%), signaling easing inflation.
A higher-than-expected CPI could prompt more rate hikes, hurting equities. A lower CPI might signal economic weakness and cause volatility.
11/4/2025 – Core PPI YoY (US)
The Producer Price Index (PPI) Ex Food & Energy measures price changes in US markets, excluding food and energy. A high reading is bullish for the USD, while a low reading is bearish.
PPI Ex Food & Energy gauges inflation pressures, influencing Fed policy. A rise could lead to higher interest rates.
A rise from 3.4% to 3.6% suggests increasing inflation, reinforcing expectations for high interest rates and market volatility.
Markets expect a modest rise in PPI, which could impact interest rate expectations and market volatility.
Higher-than-expected readings may trigger rate hikes, hurting equities and boosting the dollar. Lower readings could ease fears, benefiting risk assets but weakening the dollar.
Q&A Section:
How did the US dollar and safe-haven assets like gold perform during this week?
The US dollar and safe-haven assets saw significant movements. On April 2, the dollar surged alongside soaring gold and silver prices as tariff uncertainty drove safe-haven demand. By April 4, the dollar rebounded further as a safe haven amid a Nasdaq bear market and global growth concerns. Gold gained earlier on April 1 as the dollar wavered due to mixed US economic signals, and its appeal as a safe haven persisted throughout the week amid trade tensions and inflation risks.
How did Trump’s tariffs affect global markets by April 3, 2025?
Trump’s tariffs, announced by April 3, triggered widespread market concerns. They raised fears of a global economic slowdown, prompting Canada, South Korea, and Brazil to seek trade solutions. Tech stocks and companies like Wayfair and Penske slumped earlier on April 2, while the Nasdaq entered a bear market by April 4. The tariffs also risked pushing iPhone prices to $2,300, reflecting regulatory and cost pressures, and heightened trade war fears as global leaders condemned the move.
